MLB PLAYER PROPS · Thursday, September 3

Giants vs Pirates player props, and the case against each one.

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, first pitch 12:35 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded card is 55-57-8 at -2.7% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

The arms

Blade Tidwell

Giants

ERA: 4.54
WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.41
hard contact allowed: 37.0%
HR per batter faced: 3.25%

Lake Bachar

Pirates

ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.20
hard contact allowed: 34.7%
HR per batter faced: 4.22%

ON TODAY'S CARD

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs

+440at betPARX

Rafael Devers has gone over 0.5 home runs in 21% of his 140 games this season, and in 6 of his last 10.

He faces Lake Bachar.

This one is on the Lab's card for today, which takes the best five lines across the whole slate and is graded in public afterwards. See the other four and how they are priced.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Total Bases	+131	Caesars	under in 60% of his last ten; Gonzalez hits the ball hard at only the 35th percentile of qualified regulars
Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases	+163	Bally Bet	over in 60% of his last ten; Cruz hits the ball hard at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does, and these are separate from the card play above.

Angle 1

Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Total Bases

+131at Caesars

Jacob Gonzalez has gone under 0.5 total bases in 55% of 67 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Blade Tidwell.

Gonzalez hits the ball hard at only the 35th percentile of qualified regulars.
Blade Tidwell has allowed hard contact on 37.0% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +145 and this is +131, giving up roughly 5.7%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 67th percentile on.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases

+163at Bally Bet

Oneil Cruz has gone over 1.5 total bases in 53% of 76 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Blade Tidwell.

Cruz hits the ball hard at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 92nd percentile on.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +146 against the +163 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

Blade Tidwell has allowed hard contact on 37.0% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Angels vs Pirates player props, and today's full card.

Every prop in this game The record

Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, September 3. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.