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NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 4

Jaguars vs Bengals player props, and the case against each one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, kickoff 1:00 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded card is 14-20-1 at -5.9% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 4. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Joe Burrow Under 8.5 Rushing Yards-110theScore Betunder in 70% of his last ten; Joe Burrow averages 1.75 carries a game over 8 games, against 3.55 for QBs (23rd percentile)
Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards-110DraftKingsover in 70% of his last ten; Trevor Lawrence averages 4.82 carries a game over 17 games, against 3.55 for QBs (74th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Joe Burrow Under 8.5 Rushing Yards

-110at theScore Bet

Joe Burrow has gone under 8.5 rushing yards in 88% of 8 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

  • Joe Burrow averages 1.75 carries a game over 8 games, against 3.55 for QBs (23rd percentile).
  • Joe Burrow has 3.14 yards per carry over 6 games, against 4.27 for QBs (23rd percentile).
  • Jacksonville Jaguars rank 21st of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 16.6 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +100 and this is -110, giving up roughly 4.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Joe Burrow

Angle 2

Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards

-110at DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence has gone over 14.5 rushing yards in 61% of 18 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

  • Trevor Lawrence averages 4.82 carries a game over 17 games, against 3.55 for QBs (74th percentile).
  • Trevor Lawrence has 4.69 yards per carry over 17 games, against 4.27 for QBs (60th percentile).
  • Cincinnati Bengals rank 11th of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 25.0 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +100 and this is -110, giving up roughly 4.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Trevor Lawrence

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card is.

Same slate: Best NFL anytime touchdown props for Sunday.

Every prop in this gameThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.