Rays vs Yankees player props, and the case against each one.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, first pitch 8:00 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

The arms

Nick Martinez

Rays

ERA: 3.10
WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 5.45
hard contact allowed: 32.9%
HR per batter faced: 3.05%

Max Fried

Yankees

ERA: 2.80
WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 8.31
hard contact allowed: 29.6%
HR per batter faced: 1.10%

ON WEDNESDAY'S CARD

Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Hits Allowed

-138at NoVig

Nick Martinez has gone over 3.5 hits allowed in 84% of his 31 games this season, and in 8 of his last 10.

This one was on the Lab's card for Wednesday, which took the best five lines across the whole slate. See how the card settled.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases	-155	BetMGM	under in 90% of his last ten; Nick Martinez has allowed hard contact on 32.9% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Total Bases	-220	theScore Bet	under in 80% of his last ten; Simpson hits the ball hard at only the 0th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does, and these are separate from the card play above.

Angle 1

Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases

-155at BetMGM

Luis Garcia Jr. has gone under 1.5 total bases in 64% of 151 games this season and 90% across the last ten. He faces Nick Martinez.

Nick Martinez has allowed hard contact on 32.9% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Nick Martinez carries a 3.10 ERA and a .249 average against over 180.0 innings.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -155.

The last ten (90%) sits a long way from the season rate (64%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Luis Garcia Jr.

Angle 2

Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Total Bases

-220at theScore Bet

Chandler Simpson has gone under 1.5 total bases in 60% of 150 games this season and 80% across the last ten. He faces Max Fried.

Simpson hits the ball hard at only the 0th percentile of qualified regulars.
Max Fried has allowed hard contact on 29.6% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 8th percentile on.

The case against

At -220 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

The last ten (80%) sits a long way from the season rate (60%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Chandler Simpson

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB home run props for Wednesday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Wednesday, October 7. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 7, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.