Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 11:07 AM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
John Bates
WSHIndianapolis Colts @ Washington CommandersSun 9:30 AM
Bates on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.11red zone targets per game 0.22receptions per game 1.22
Anytime TD
24 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
IND · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.30.30.7
39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 6 totalseason 0.3no per-play form for this stat66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.61.62.0
89th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 28 totalseason 1.6no per-play form for this stat89th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 6 totalsupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.42.43.3
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 40 totalseason 2.4no per-play form for this stat79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 10 totalneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
John Bates Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.110.20
SZN12th percentile for mostleague avg 0.409 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 0.11 (12th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
red zone targets per game0.220.60
SZN16th percentile for mostleague avg 0.599 games (2025)vs last 5 · 57th pctseason 0.22 (16th)5 gamessupports UNDERneutral
receptions per game1.221.20
SZN17th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 1.22 (17th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+950FanDuelat 0.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing