Best MLB Hits Props, Saturday September 19

3 selections from 19 MLB hits props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Saturday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 Hits	+128	betPARX	under in 70% of his last ten; Cam Schlittler has allowed hard contact on 39.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Pavin Smith Under 0.5 Hits	-124	betPARX	under in 50% of his last ten; Cam Schlittler has allowed hard contact on 39.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Jacob Young Under 0.5 Hits	+138	betPARX	under in 50% of his last ten; Young hits the ball hard at only the 16th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 Hits

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks · first pitch 8:10 PM ET

+128at betPARX

Lars Nootbaar has gone under 0.5 hits in 46% of 82 games this season and 70% across the last ten. He faces Cam Schlittler.

Cam Schlittler has allowed hard contact on 39.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 37th percentile on.
Cam Schlittler carries a 1.95 ERA and a .185 average against over 184.2 innings.

The case against

The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +128.

Nootbaar hits the ball hard at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.

The last ten (70%) sits a long way from the season rate (46%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Lars Nootbaar

Angle 2

Pavin Smith Under 0.5 Hits

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks · first pitch 8:10 PM ET

-124at betPARX

Pavin Smith has gone under 0.5 hits in 64% of 33 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Cam Schlittler.

Cam Schlittler has allowed hard contact on 39.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Cam Schlittler carries a 1.95 ERA and a .185 average against over 184.2 innings.

The case against

At -124 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Full game log and every book on Pavin Smith

Angle 3

Jacob Young Under 0.5 Hits

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals · first pitch 7:16 PM ET

+138at betPARX

Jacob Young has gone under 0.5 hits in 40% of 124 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Michael McGreevy.

Young hits the ball hard at only the 16th percentile of qualified regulars.
Michael McGreevy has allowed hard contact on 41.7% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 37th percentile on.

The case against

No complaint about +138. The risk sits with the form read holding up.

Full game log and every book on Jacob Young

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB home run props for Saturday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Saturday, September 19. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 19, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.