Best MLB Home Run Props, Saturday September 19

3 selections from 14 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Saturday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs	+450	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Rice barrels the ball at the 93rd percentile of qualified regulars
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs	+475	Fanatics	over in 20% of his last ten; He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 90th percentile on
Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Home Runs	+600	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Butler barrels the ball at the 60th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks · first pitch 8:10 PM ET

+450at Fanatics

Ben Rice has gone over 0.5 home runs in 26% of 145 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Brandon Pfaadt.

Rice barrels the ball at the 93rd percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 98th percentile on.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +450.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a home run on 2.73% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Ben Rice

Angle 2

Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs

Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 8:11 PM ET

+475at Fanatics

Randy Arozarena has gone over 0.5 home runs in 16% of 146 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Jose Quintana.

He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 90th percentile on.
Jose Quintana carries a 5.27 ERA and a .288 average against over 41.0 innings.

The case against

At +475 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Jose Quintana has allowed a home run on 3.31% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Randy Arozarena

Angle 3

Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Home Runs

Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · first pitch 6:11 PM ET

+600at Fanatics

Lawrence Butler has gone over 0.5 home runs in 11% of 141 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Tanner Bibee.

Butler barrels the ball at the 60th percentile of qualified regulars.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a home run on 3.84% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 67th percentile on.

The case against

No complaint about +600. The risk sits with the form read holding up.

Full game log and every book on Lawrence Butler

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Saturday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Saturday, September 19. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 19, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.