Best MLB Home Run Props, Sunday September 13

3 selections from 18 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Home Runs	+525	bet365	over in 30% of his last ten; Crow-Armstrong barrels the ball at the 90th percentile of qualified regulars
Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Home Runs	+575	bet365	over in 40% of his last ten; Suarez barrels the ball at the 84th percentile of qualified regulars
Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Home Runs	+600	bet365	over in 30% of his last ten; Gelof barrels the ball at the 66th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Home Runs

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs · first pitch 2:21 PM ET

+525at bet365

Pete Crow-Armstrong has gone over 0.5 home runs in 23% of 149 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Bubba Chandler.

Crow-Armstrong barrels the ball at the 90th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 98th percentile on.

The case against

The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +525.

Bubba Chandler has allowed a home run on 2.12% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Pete Crow-Armstrong

Angle 2

Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 2:11 PM ET

+575at bet365

Eugenio Suarez has gone over 0.5 home runs in 19% of 114 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Robert Gasser.

Suarez barrels the ball at the 84th percentile of qualified regulars.
Robert Gasser has allowed a home run on 3.54% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 80th percentile on.

The case against

+575 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.

The last ten (40%) sits a long way from the season rate (19%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Eugenio Suarez

Angle 3

Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Home Runs

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · first pitch 4:06 PM ET

+600at bet365

Zack Gelof has gone over 0.5 home runs in 18% of 94 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Bryce Miller.

Gelof barrels the ball at the 66th percentile of qualified regulars.
Bryce Miller has allowed a home run on 4.34% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 79th percentile on.

The case against

No complaint about +600. The risk sits with the form read holding up.

Full game log and every book on Zack Gelof

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Sunday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 13. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 13, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.