Best MLB Home Run Props, Sunday September 27

3 selections from 17 MLB home run props across 15 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs	+450	BetOnline	over in 60% of his last ten; Alonso barrels the ball at the 96th percentile of qualified regulars
Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs	+650	Fanatics	over in 20% of his last ten; Jones barrels the ball at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs	+430	betPARX	over in 30% of his last ten; Cruz barrels the ball at the 99th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees · first pitch 1:05 PM ET

+450at BetOnline

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 home runs in 25% of 161 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Elmer Rodríguez.

Alonso barrels the ball at the 96th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 99th percentile on.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +450.

Elmer Rodríguez has allowed a home run on 1.60% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

The last ten (60%) sits a long way from the season rate (25%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Pete Alonso

Angle 2

Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees · first pitch 1:05 PM ET

+650at Fanatics

Spencer Jones has gone over 0.5 home runs in 13% of 84 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Shane Baz.

Jones barrels the ball at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 64th percentile on.

The case against

+650 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.

Shane Baz has allowed a home run on 1.95% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Spencer Jones

Angle 3

Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays · first pitch 3:08 PM ET

+430at betPARX

Elly De La Cruz has gone over 0.5 home runs in 20% of 142 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Max Scherzer.

Cruz barrels the ball at the 99th percentile of qualified regulars.
Max Scherzer has allowed a home run on 4.44% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 83rd percentile on.

The case against

No complaint about +430. The risk sits with the form read holding up.

Full game log and every book on Elly De La Cruz

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits + runs + RBIs props for Sunday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 27. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 27, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.