Research

What happens to the Magic's player props without Anthony Black?

Quick answer

In the 19 regular-season games Orlando played without Anthony Black in 2025-26, against 63 with him, the Magic scored 116.74 points a game (median 119) against 115.44 (median 115). Tristan da Silva averaged 13.00 points in 29.11 minutes without him against 8.88 in 23.24 with him, and Jamal Cain 8.19 against 3.50. Franz Wagner played only 3 of the 19 games without Black, so most of that sample is a Magic team missing both. The cause of each absence is unknown from our logs, and these are last season's numbers, not a forecast.

Anthony Black will not play for Orlando vs Minnesota on Friday, October 23, 2026. The ESPN injury feed lists him as out in an entry dated October 22, 2026, and its comment reads, “Black (ankle) has been ruled out for Friday’s game against the Timberwolves.” The feed also lists Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda out. Black has no line in our logs for Orlando’s opener on October 21 vs Atlanta, and one game is not a sample, so every number below comes from last season: the Magic played 82 regular-season games in 2025-26, Black played 10 or more minutes in 63 of them, and 19 came without him. Our logs do not say why he missed any single game, so the cause is unknown.

A game counts as with Black when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation. Five games he played short still count as with him: November 14 vs Brooklyn (17 minutes), April 6 vs Detroit (15), April 8 vs Minnesota (16), April 10 at Chicago (19) and April 12 at Boston (19). One game he left early counts as without: on March 7 at Minnesota he played 2 minutes and scored 0, the Magic scored 119, and he did not play again until April 6. The 19 games without him came in two stretches: two from March 1 to March 3, and 17 from March 7 to April 5.

The biggest thing in this sample: Wagner was out too

Franz Wagner played 31 of the 63 games with Black but only 3 of the 19 without him. In 16 of the games without Black, Wagner did not play either, so most of what the without column shows is a Magic team missing both. Three games is too few for a column of their own.

The Magic, with Black against without him

Magic per game (median)With, 63 gamesWithout, 19 games
Points115.44 (115)116.74 (119)
Rebounds43.56 (43)42.79 (41)
Assists26.59 (27)26.42 (27)
Three-pointers11.75 (12)11.63 (12)

Black himself averaged 15.22 points, 3.86 rebounds, 3.75 assists and 1.59 three-pointers in 30.33 minutes in the games he played.

The teammates: minutes and points

PlayerGames with, withoutMinutes withMinutes withoutPoints with (median)Points without (median)
Paolo Banchero53, 1934.7034.7421.64 (23)23.79 (24)
Desmond Bane63, 1933.5733.7919.78 (20)21.11 (21)
Franz Wagner31, 331.0319.0021.23 (21)13.67 (12)
Jalen Suggs40, 1726.4830.0613.78 (13.5)13.82 (14)
Wendell Carter Jr.61, 1729.2029.9411.43 (11)13.24 (13)
Tristan da Silva58, 1923.2429.118.88 (8)13.00 (12)
Jamal Cain24, 168.4217.563.50 (2)8.19 (8)
Goga Bitadze48, 1616.0612.446.27 (6)4.62 (4)

The teammates: rebounds, assists and threes

PlayerRebounds withRebounds withoutAssists withAssists withoutThrees withThrees without
Paolo Banchero8.49 (9)8.11 (8)5.21 (5)5.11 (5)1.13 (1)1.26 (1)
Desmond Bane4.13 (4)4.11 (4)4.00 (4)4.53 (4)2.05 (2)2.00 (2)
Franz Wagner5.39 (6)3.33 (4)3.48 (3)1.67 (2)1.55 (1)0.00 (0)
Jalen Suggs3.77 (3)4.06 (4)5.38 (5)5.71 (6)2.17 (2)2.06 (2)
Wendell Carter Jr.7.48 (7)7.12 (6)2.02 (2)1.82 (2)0.98 (1)0.71 (0)
Tristan da Silva3.45 (3)4.42 (4)1.43 (1)2.16 (2)1.53 (1)1.63 (1)
Jamal Cain1.25 (1)3.00 (3)0.46 (0)1.12 (1)0.42 (0)1.12 (1)
Goga Bitadze5.33 (5)4.00 (4)1.23 (1)1.56 (1)0.04 (0)0.00 (0)

Every figure is per game the player played, in the group of games shown. Games with and games without count the games each player appeared in, so a player who missed games himself has a smaller count than the group. Wagner’s without column is 3 games and Cain’s first game of the season in our logs was November 14, so read those two rows as what happened, not as a change.

What this can and cannot tell you

The largest shift is da Silva: 29.11 minutes and 13.00 points a game without Black (median 12) against 23.24 and 8.88 with him (median 8), with more rebounds and assists too. Cain’s minutes doubled, from 8.42 to 17.56. Banchero, Bane and Wendell Carter Jr. each scored between 1.33 and 2.15 points more in about the same minutes, and Suggs played more minutes for the same points. With Wagner out for 16 of the 19 games, some or all of those shifts may belong to his absence rather than Black’s, and our logs cannot separate the two.

Two more players are out on Friday and were mostly playing with Black last season: Jonathan Isaac (49 games with him, 3 without) and Noah Penda (44 with, 15 without). Neither is part of the comparison above. Jett Howard, Moritz Wagner and Tyus Jones played for Orlando last season but are not on the roster ESPN listed on October 22, 2026. With Wagner missing most of the without games, the cause of each absence unknown and the roster different, none of this forecasts Friday’s game vs Minnesota, and none of it says anything about prices.

Where to find these

Each player has a page with every game beside the line: Tristan da Silva’s points, Paolo Banchero’s points and Desmond Bane’s points. Friday’s lines appear on the Lab board once the game is posted. The NBA allowance tables are on defense vs position for NBA props, and the same question for another team is in Warriors props without Jimmy Butler.

Source: our NBA game logs, regular season only, Orlando’s 82 games in 2025-26 through April 12, 2026. Black’s status as listed on the ESPN injury feed, entry dated October 22, 2026, read October 22, 2026.

Written by Ben at Steezanomics. Every public Lab play since Sep 25, 2026 is logged, losses included.

Quick answers

How many games did the Magic play without Black last season?

19 of their 82 regular-season games, in two stretches: two from March 1 to March 3, and 17 from March 7 to April 5. A game counts as with Black when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation; on March 7 at Minnesota he played 2, so that game counts as without.

What did Black himself average?

In the 63 games he played 10 or more minutes, 15.22 points (median 14), 3.86 rebounds (median 3), 3.75 assists (median 4) and 1.59 three-pointers (median 1) in 30.33 minutes a game (median 31).

Who scored more without him?

Tristan da Silva averaged 13.00 points (median 12) in 19 games without Black against 8.88 (median 8) in 58 with him, in 29.11 minutes against 23.24. Paolo Banchero averaged 23.79 (median 24) against 21.64 (median 23), and Desmond Bane 21.11 against 19.78.

Was Franz Wagner playing in those games?

Mostly not. Wagner played 31 of the 63 games with Black and 3 of the 19 without him, so the without column is mostly a Magic team missing both. Three games is not a sample, and the cause of either absence is unknown.

Does this tell me what will happen against Minnesota?

No. Wagner missed most of the without games, Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda are also out on Friday, and Jett Howard, Moritz Wagner and Tyus Jones are no longer on the roster. These numbers describe what happened; they do not forecast Friday, and they say nothing about the prices.

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